-
01 · The move
Front-month crude sells off - the sharpest drop in weeks.
What lands first is the price on the screen, not the headline behind it.
1/2 -
02 · The driver
The war-risk premium is unwinding - Hormuz de-escalation talks are progressing.
The news is the trigger; the repricing is the move - one of several macro forces on crude.
1/2 -
03 · Transmission
Product cracks and freight reprice; the edible-oil complex tracks crude down; buyer unit economics shift.
The cracks and freight legs move within hours - the part most desks feel last.
1/2 -
04 · Your exposure
Your held cargo is offside. The buyer walks. The credit deadline looms - a $10M liquidity crunch, 36 hours later.
The kind of chain a desk can't trace by hand fast enough - across every position, before the market moves.
-
05 · Confidence
Every link calibrated against comparable de-escalation repricings - and open to inspect.
No black box: query any assumption, see the precedent, weigh the confidence at each step.
Disagree with step two? Open it. Every link is auditable - because you should never act on reasoning you can't see.